October 28, 2026
In March, New York's Cannabis Control Board warned that licensed growers would fall 356,000 pounds short of what the adult-use market would need. Six months later, the Office of Cannabis Management told the board that gap had probably closed. Its September 3 forecast puts 2026 production at about 926,000 pounds of dry biomass, against an estimated 903,000 pounds of demand for the year starting in October, according to the meeting transcript.
New York cannabis supply is now roughly even with demand, with a margin of about 2.5%. Part of the change came from more canopy. More of it came from a smaller demand estimate, and the biggest harvest of the year is still coming in.
The state used two tools after March. It let existing growers apply to move up to larger canopy tiers, and it kept issuing new cultivation licenses. Licensed canopy rose from 9.1 million square feet in March to 12 million in August, a 32% increase. Tier increases, mostly from outdoor growers, added about 2.6 million square feet. New licenses added about 0.3 million.
The approved tier increases still fall well short of the March target. OCM staff said the 67 amendments fully approved so far add about 127,000 pounds of annual production, 36% of the 356,000-pound goal. Another 34 were still in process, most of them waiting on payment.
The demand side moved more. OCM now estimates the October 2026 to September 2027 sell-through period needs 903,000 pounds, down 15% from the 1.06 million it estimated in March.
OCM cut its 2026 sales forecast from $2.6 billion to $2 billion in July. On September 3 it cut its 2027 forecast from $3.7 billion to $2.6 billion. Staff gave two reasons. The agency switched from self-reported sales to Metrc tracking data, which gave it a clearer picture of the market. And "price declines have been more aggressive than we'd modeled for, landing between 10 and 15 percent depending on the product category."
Shoppers are still buying more items. Units sold have grown 39% since January, OCM said. Headset's data shows New York sales of $160.8 million in September, up 10% from a year earlier, with units up 21.6%. The average item price fell from $31.63 to $28.62 over the same period. OCM reported $512.6 million in third-quarter sales at its October 1 board meeting.
The March forecast assumed about 450 operating cultivators, based on a late-2025 survey in which 80% of respondents said they were growing. Metrc data showed something different. As of the end of August, 313 cultivators, or 55% of licensees, had logged at least one planting in 2026. OCM staff attributed the gap to survey bias: growers who answered were more likely to be operating.
Those 313 growers had planted 1.64 million plants and harvested 241,000 pounds of dry biomass by the end of August. OCM expects another 685,000 pounds from September through December, 545,000 of it from outdoor farms. So most of the forecast production was still in the field when the board heard it. OCM plans its next full review in March 2027, after the 2026 harvest is in.
At the same meeting, the board approved prorated fees for cultivator license amendments. An OCM official told the board the fees were likely one reason fewer growers applied for tier increases than expected, and a farmer who spoke in public comment said, "we cannot afford the fees or we would have already applied."
Flower brands and growers are pitching buyers who are no longer short of product. With supply roughly matching demand and outdoor harvest arriving this fall, store buyers have more choice and less reason to accept a price increase. OCM says prices have already fallen 10% to 15%, depending on the category.
Brands in faster-growing categories have more room. In Headset's September data, flower sales grew 5.3% from a year earlier, while pre-rolls grew 18.3%, vapes 13.1%, and concentrates 28%. Our read is that a fall wave of outdoor biomass makes the input for pre-rolls and extracts cheaper, which helps those categories keep growing.
Packaging, software, and payments vendors should plan around unit counts. Stores are moving more items at lower prices, so packaging orders and transaction counts are growing faster than revenue.
Vendors selling to cultivators should know that the license list overstates the active market. By Metrc's count, 45% of licensed growers hadn't planted anything this year as of August.
The forecast is OCM's, and it rests on harvest weights that won't be final until winter. If outdoor yields come in light, the gap could reopen. If they come in heavy, New York may tip into the oversupply its staff said can "have significant destabilizing effects."
Is there a cannabis shortage in New York? Not according to OCM's latest forecast. In September, it projected 926,000 pounds of 2026 production against 903,000 pounds of demand, and said its canopy increases were sufficient to close the short-term supply gap.
How much licensed cannabis canopy does New York have? About 12 million square feet as of August 2026, up 32% from 9.1 million in March, according to OCM.
Are New York cannabis prices falling? Yes. OCM said prices fell 10% to 15% depending on the category, and Headset's average item price dropped from $31.63 to $28.62 between September 2025 and September 2026.
New York's dispensary buyers have more supply to choose from going into the winter. See verified, owner-level contacts for New York dispensaries, refreshed weekly. Free preview at holdenleads.com.
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